Outside is Overrated

By Joel

I am a big fan of HBO’s Hard Knocks and look forward to getting an inside look at training camp every year. Anyone who had watched the Dallas Cowboy’s season of Hard Knocks wasn’t surprised to see Danny Amendola lead the St. Louis Rams in receiving yards last year. In fact, we were all anxiously waiting for him to finally get his opportunity. I had mixed feelings when ESPN posted this poll showing that football fans wanted to see the Detroit Lions as the star of this season’s show. There are plenty of interesting storylines as the team is one of the youngest in the NFL and has the potential to shock those that think the Lions will continue to suck for the rest of eternity. Which could be just until tomorrow, depending on what you believe.

House of Spears won’t be HBO’s new star.

The past two teams to accept HBO’s offer and allow their training camp to be overrun with camera crews have actually had a decent amount of success. In 2009, the Cincinnati Bengals were coming off a 4-11-1 record before becoming the star of Hard Knocks. The Bengals were a perfect choice because they’ll always have some story as long as Chad Johnson OchocincoJohnson is on the team. What was the most surprising was that after being on Hard Knocks, the Bengals immediately made an impressive 10-6 run through the regular season, winning their division and making the playoffs. In 2010, Rex Ryan’s New York Jets got their turn to be the stars coming off an AFC Championship appearance. What did they do after their appearance on HBO? Only made it to the AFC Championship again. Being the star of Hard Knocks is the opposite of the Madden Curse.

So as a Detroit Lions fan, I should be excited that the Lions were in the running for Hard Knocks, right? Wrong. Notice that I said, “were in the running.” Head coach Jim Schwartz shot down the idea and many of the players backed that decision. It’s a distraction. A team like the Jets can pull if off because Rex Ryan feeds on attention. And if you’ve seen him lately you can tell he gets a lot of attention. Jim Schwartz isn’t like Rex. This is a big year for him. He needs to start showing significant improvement and camera crews interfering with his training camp would only make his job more difficult. Plus, I like the Lions flying under the radar. That way, if we do have football before the world ends, they’ll surprise everyone.

REX RYAN HUNGRY!!!

Brandon League’s job just got a lot more secure. While making his return from hip surgery, David Aardsma appears to have suffered a setback. He will be visiting Dr. Lewis Yocum to look at his grade two UCL sprain as reported here. I may not know what a UCL sprain is, but I know that this is bad news. A grade three sprain means that it is actually torn, so luckily it isn’t that severe. Still, a grade two sprain means that there is a partial tear. Typically, a tear in the UCL (of the UCL?) means it is time for Tommy John surgery. As I said before, bad news.

Well, it isn’t bad news if you’re Brandon League. Going into the season, I anticipated that League would get Kerry Wood’d. Basically, the Mariners would showcase him as a closer while Aardsma was recovering and then around the trade deadline, they’d ship League off to a contender needing bullpen help. Now, Mariners fans need to be hoping that Aardsma gets healthy in time to pitch for a couple weeks before the trade deadline so the Mariners can get something for him instead. Aardsma’s future is unclear, but it’s safe to say that League is the closer for at least this year.

Like Travis Hafner, League finds it cool to leave his shirt partially unbuttoned.

Had you told me after last season that League would be the closer, I would have said you were crazy. In 2010, League put up a 9-7 record with six saves, 13 holds, 3.42 ERA, and six blown saves. He wasn’t spectacular and wasn’t looking like a pitcher ready to step into the closer position. However, since being handed the closer role, League has been pretty good. Even on Tuesday when he recorded his first blown save of the season, he wasn’t terrible. Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing does a wonderful job at breaking down League’s inning here.

League will get better this year and that’s encouraging considering he has already been pretty good. So far this year, he’s 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA, nine saves and one blown save. Those numbers are a bit misleading, because as we dive into the advanced stats provided by FanGraphs, we see a couple encouraging things (small sample sizes be damned!). First, his FIP is sitting at 1.61 and his xFIP is 2.84. That ERA will be coming down. His BABIP is pretty high at .333, considering his career average is down at .285. Also, his LOB% is at 50%, much lower than the expected 70%. What this is saying is that he’s getting a little unlucky. Batters are getting on base more often than usual (we can blame that on Figgins) and those same batters are making it around to home more often that we would expect. Over the course of the season, those numbers should even out and League will start looking better. Which is good, because he’s now the closer for the indefinite future.

I watched the Mariners last year so I understand why you may not trust League. I’m having a tough time accepting it myself. But in a bullpen with so many questions, League is the one guy the Mariners should have faith in.

By Joel

Part 1 was posted on Tuesday and covers picks 1 through 16. Check it out here.

Before we get into the second half of round one, I want to cover a couple things. First, this whole Cam Newton/Blaine Gabbert thing is starting to remind me of the Alex Smith/Aaron Rodgers draft a few years ago. I’m not saying that Gabbert is going to be Rodgers (I think he’s more Matt Ryan) but I do think Cam Newton will be Alex Smith. JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Alex Smith, pick your comparison, they all work.

Second, I’ve had a few questions about Jake Locker. I’ll cover my thoughts about him here because (SPOILER ALERT!) I don’t see him going in the first round, meaning he won’t make my mock draft.

He’s no Andrew Luck.

So, Jake Locker. I’m a Huskies fan, I really want to see him succeed. But occasionally, I’m realistic. This is one of those rare times. Sure he has the size, arm strength, speed, etc. that you want in a QB, but he’s not ready. He still needs to develop. A lot. I know there was all that talk of him going first overall last year but I don’t buy it. No team would have drafted Locker over Bradford. Bradford was clearly ready for the NFL and the only concern was his injury. Because Locker returned to college, he didn’t go through the criticism that comes with the draft. Had teams really taken a look at him last year, they would have seen the same thing they’re seeing this year. He’s not ready. He will probably go in the late second round and have a similar career to Pat White. I hope not, but that’s what I see from Jake Locker. Please Locker, prove me wrong.

So anyway, where was I? Oh right, pick number 17:

17. New England Patriots – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

New England needs a running back. They’ve needed one for years. Mark Ingram is the best one in this draft and should be available unless the Dolphins grab him earlier. I don’t think they take a risk and hope he falls to 28. They’ll pick him here.

18. San Diego Chargers – Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

Smith is all over the place. He could even go number five to the Cardinals. This would be a lights out pick for the Chargers as the could use someone to replace Shawne Merriman. Preferably someone who doesn’t have a taste forsteroids.

19. New York Giants – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

Well this is a boring pick. They need to work on their aging offensive line and they’ll take the best available. According to my draft, that would be Carimi. Done.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

The Buccaneers are really good at evaluating talent. Drafting Josh Freeman and Mike Williams and then signing LeGarrette Blount were all very smart moves. Because they did make a mistake by picking Aqib Talib a few years ago, they’ll correct that by grabbing Jimmy Smith here.

Wait, wrong Jimmy Smith.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

Back-to-back Buffaloes being taken in the first round! The only good player I can think of that came out of Colorado was Kordell Stewart. Oh wait, I said good, right? Never mind, I can’t think of any.

22. Indianapolis Colts – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

Okay, let’s be honest. The Colts are not a very good team. If you replace Peyton Manning with Mark Sanchez, they’d be lucky to win a couple games. What I’m trying to say is that any player is going to be a good pick at this point because they have needs at every position. Why not try to improve that offensive line to get a couple more years out of everyone’s favorite commercial star?

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Aaron Williams, CB, Texas

Everyone has Philly taking Jimmy Smith here but if you’ve been following along, he’s going to be enjoying the sun in Tampa. They have a need at cornerback so I’ll say they take the best available here.

24. New Orleans Saints – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

We all know that the Saints don’t need any help on offense. They could however, use a few guys that can make a tackle or two. Any defensive player would help at this point and Liuget should be able to come in and help their run defense.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor

How did the Seahawks get this far down on the list? I recall them playing pretty poorly last year. What was that? Marshawn Lynch? Oh right, that was a pretty sweet run. Anyway, I’d like them to take Locker here and let him develop behind Hasselbeck but I just don’t see it happening. Instead, they’ll strengthen their line for whoever does become their quarterback of the future. One thing we know is that it sure won’t be Charlie Whitehurst!

26. Baltimore Ravens – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

Baltimore’s defense isn’t as good as it once was and those guys are all getting pretty old. Ayers is a possibility here but I think they’ll grab Clayborn to team up with Ngata for a pretty scary defensive line.

27. Atlanta Falcons – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The Falcons need another receiver to pair with Roddy White but there won’t be one worth taking at this point. Instead, they’ll work on improving the defensive line.

28. New England Patriots – Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

This draft is loaded with defensive linemen. Seriously, this is the third in a row and I can’t think of anything else to say about them at this point. I do think that the Patriots will use the pick they got from the Raiders for Ingram and then draft a player that replaces Seymour here. Pretty good trade for the Patriots.

29. Chicago Bears – Andy Dalton, QB, TCU

Might as well start looking to the future, right? Did I mention that I hate Jay Cutler? (For what it’s worth, there is no way they take Dalton here.)

I looked up douchebag in the dictionary and this is the image that came up.

30. New York Jets – Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

Yeah, that Kris Jenkins signing worked out for them. The Jets have a great defense but could use some help at defensive tackle or safety. Taylor should be able to handle the middle and free up the Jet’s linebackers. Something they thought Jenkins could do.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

As much as I love to hate them, the Steelers are another team that always seems to draft well. If Ayers makes it this far, he’d be a great pick for them and become another guy that I have to start hating.

32. Green Bay Packers  - Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)

It wouldn’t be a real NFL draft without a Hurricane going in the first round. Ideally, the Packers would want to go offensive line here but there’s not really anything left.

Okay, I’m done. It may not have been great but at least it was better than Mel Kiper. No one really likes him, right?

By Joel

Okay, so I lied. It is another NFL mock draft. But there is a reason why you should read this one! After watching hours of footage on every prospect in this years draft, I’ve started to build my mock draft for the 2011 NFL Draft. Now, I can’t guarantee this is how the draft will play out. While I’ve prepared myself by watching plenty of film, we all know that many of these GMs have no idea what they’re doing. We could all do their job better, right? Well, this is how the first half of Thursday’s draft should play out:

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton will be the first pick. It’s not even up for debate at this point. He has the potential to be the next Ben Roethlisberger. Well, minus the sexual assault accusations. For now. Sorry Panthers fans, but I see Newton being JaMarcus Russell 2.0. Just make sure to keep him away from that purple drank.

2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

Denver is praying that Carolina takes Newton. They don’t want him and they don’t need him. They have Tim Tebow! Dareus makes the most sense and will immediately improve John Fox’s defense in Denver.

3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Remember Aaron Maybin? No? Well the Bills do. They took him in the first round of the 2009 draft and hoped he would fill their OLB hole. Since they’re considering Miller here, it’s obvious that Maybin didn’t work out.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

The Bengals are a disaster. I guess that’s nothing new though. Ignoring their obvious need for a QB now that Palmer wants out, they need to fill their hole at WR. The T.Ocho experiment didn’t work. Even I gave up on Ocho this year. The days of the Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh duo are long gone and it’s time they start over. Green’s their guy.

Yeah, that didn’t really work out.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

Larry Fitzgerald will be the first to tell you that the Cardinals need a QB. This may come as a surprise to Derek Anderson (just kidding, it won’t) but they’ll be hoping either Gabbert or Newton make it to them. Luckily for Arizona, the Panthers will take Newton at number one and make their choice easy. Gabbert is the better option anyway.

6. Cleveland Browns – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Poor Cleveland. At least the Indians are playing well because nothing else seems to be going their way in the sports world. They’re a big wildcard early in this draft. They have so many needs that they could go a lot of different ways. I see them taking Quinn here but I don’t know why. So let’s just move along.

7. San Francisco 49ers – Patrick Peterson, DB, LSU

This is where it gets tough for me. Being a Lions fan, I want them to get the best player at a position they need. But it just isn’t going to happen. Peterson is a top five talent and if he’s still around at this point, the 49ers will take him.

8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Tennessee could go a couple different routes here but I see them taking a chance on Nick Fairley. They’ve been looking for a defensive tackle since losing Albert Haynesworth and some think Fairley will be that guy. I have even heard comparisions to Ndamukong Suh. Woah there, cowboy. Fairley isn’t going to be as good as Suh but I think the Titans take him anyway.

Fairley is exhausted after his one good season.

9.  Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith, OT, USC

Hmm. This seems like too smart of a pick for the Cowboys. Is it too early to start slamming them for drafting Dez Bryant last year? How much jewelrydoes one guy need? The fact that Jon Kitna saw time on the field last year makes it pretty clear that they need to figure out how to protect Romo. Smith should help that.

10. Washington Redskins – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

I don’t know if Watt is the right choice for Washington. However, if they do take him, we’ll know that he was the wrong choice. Shanahan doesn’t know what he’s doing anymore as seen with how he handled McNabb and Haynesworth. I don’t expect Shanahan to surprise anyone ever again.

11. Houston Texans – Cameron Jordan, DE, California

While I’m not convinced that Schaub is the QB for Houston, their offense is still very good. Their defense is quickly improving and Jordan will help them even more. But does it make them good enough to make the playoffs? I doubt it.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

They obviously need a QB again but there isn’t one worth taking at this point. While DE is a big need for them, I see them going the offensive line path. They’ll be bringing in a new quarterback and they need to make sure that he’ll be protected.

13. Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

It took me a few weeks to get the pronunciation of Ndamukong Suh down and if the draft plays out like I hope it does, I’ll need to figure out how to pronounce Amukamara. The Lions need help on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. Amukamara would be an amazing pick at this point in the draft.

14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Jones is interesting. He could go anywhere from six to 14. He won’t fall past the Rams though. They need a receiver for Bradford and they’re even willing to move up in the draft to get him.

15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida

His brother had a really good rookie season, doesn’t that mean Mike will be too? Miami is just hoping that he won’t be the Jeremy to Maurkice’s Jason, the Boss to his brother’s Champ, or the Eli to Maurkice’s Peyton. I could do this all day long but I think you get the point.

The Ozzie to his brother’s Jose? Okay, I’m done now.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

Bowers has dropped due to concerns about his knee injury. Still, he is insanely talented and Jacksonville would love it if he did fall to them. However, Bowers won’t sell tickets so he might be enjoying LA in a few years.

Second half of round one is coming on Thursday!

By Joel

Keeping it brief again this week as I’ve got eleven shows to get through. If you need another show to watch this week (I know I do!), then check outTreme on HBO. The second season premieres Sunday at 10pm.

Now on to the rankings:

1. Game of Thrones – Winter is Coming (PW: NR)

HBO – Sunday @ 9pm

The newcomer takes the top spot. I read that Game of Thrones would do for fantasy what The Wire did for cop dramas. That’s all it took. I was in. The premiere lived up to my expectations. Actually, the opening scene had me hooked. To be honest, I haven’t read the books. But that won’t stop me from loving this series.

“He won’t be a boy forever. And, winter is coming.”

2. The Office – Michael’s Last Dundies (PW: 2)

NBC – Thursday @ 9pm

I can neither confirm nor deny that this episode brought tears to my eyes. How amazing was their parody of Rent? It’s unfortunate The Office didn’t get really good until they started the “Michael Scott Farewell Tour,” but I’m not complaining. I’m enjoying these episodes and I’m excited to see what they have for us at the end of the season. Did anyone else hear that Jim Carey rumor?

3. Community – Paradigms of Human Memory (PW: 7)

NBC – Thursday @ 8pm

Community and I have a very special relationship. They know what I like and what I don’t like. Specifically, clip shows. I hate them. When The Office pulled that crap earlier in the year, I wanted to set my TV on fire. Communityknows how to make fun of a clip show. I loved how their version consisted of entirely new clips. Just another example of the genius of Community.

“Stop being meta. Stop taking everything we do and shoving it up its own ass.”

4. The Killing – A Soundless Echo (PW: 3)

AMC – Sunday @ 7pm

Don’t look at the slight drop in the rankings as a reason not to watch The Killing. I’m still saying that it’s my favorite show on TV right now because of the suspense. Every episode leaves me wanting just another ten minutes. I really don’t know what to expect from it either. Following Dwight Shrute’s logic, I’m guessing that the killer is Rose’s friend, Sterling. Dwight says that it’s not the person you most suspect or the person you least suspect. It’s the one in the middle. Because I most medium suspect Sterling, it has to be her.

*Update: I got my mom watching the show and texting me about it. If you’re not watching The Killing, I will get you.

“You don’t know her. You don’t know anything about her.”

5. Archer – Double Trouble (PW: 5)

FX – Thursday @ 10pm

In case you forgot, the humor in Archer can be very dark. The second season finale left me with my jaw dropped. No cliffhanger, just a good “wait, did that really happen” moment. I’m going to miss my weekly dose of Archer but it will be back. Season two was even better than season one. I can’t wait for season three.

“If I stop drinking all at once, I’m afraid the cumulative hangover will kill me.”

6. Justified – Full Commitment (PW: 4)

FX – Wednesday @ 10pm

Raylan isn’t very good at maintaining relationships. At this point, everyone who has ever cared about him is done with him. When he got sent out of Miami in the beginning of the series, we knew he liked to do things his own way and didn’t really care about the impact on other people. His return home introduced a lot of characters that hadn’t seen him in a while and still cared about him. We’ve seen that Raylan isn’t changing his ways and it wouldn’t be hard to see him sent to another city. I don’t think that’s where the show is going, but it is pretty clear that Raylan is all alone now.

“Listen, I gotta make a phone call that I’m not supposed to make, that if you overheard, you should report. So you wanna go outside and check the perimeter? Or do I have to pretend to take a shower?”

7. Parks and Recreation – Soul Mates (PW: 1)

NBC – Thursday @ 9:30pm

Ron and Tom were at their best this week. One of my favorite scenes was when Ron and April were in the health food store and they were “sampling” the fake bacon. Come on, it’s really not that bad! Tom was just fantastic. He managed to be at his funniest this week while also managing to be more of a jerk than we’ve ever seen from him. If you want to join Leslie and Tom in the online dating world, check out where they met: hoosiermate.com.

“Here’s mine. It’s a hamburger made out of meat on a bun with nothing. Add ketchup if you want, I couldn’t care less.”

8. United States of Tara – Wheels (PW: 6)

Showtime – Monday @ 10:30pm

This was a good episode. Definitely my favorite of the season so far. All because of what happened in the last few minutes. It seems like they’re struggling with Kate’s storyline again. I know, I can’t make up my mind. One week I’m glad she’s on the show and I’m bored with her character the next. I’m sure we all saw her wanting to become a flight attendant coming from a mile away. Still, Tara’s story was the most intriguing and her meltdown in the classroom was a nice twist.

“I am. I am in control, mostly. Sometimes.”

9. 30 Rock – 100 (PW: 8 )

NBC – Thursday @ 10pm

Congratulations to 30 Rock for making it through 100 episodes. When I saw this episode was an hour long, I actually groaned. It hasn’t been my favorite show lately and I didn’t think they could keep me entertained for an hour. Add that to the fact that it was pretty similar to the Community episode and I wasn’t impressed. I really don’t like clip shows and even though this episode had plenty of new content, it felt pretty clip showish to me.

“Jenna, are you pregnant? How? Did you go swimming in a public pool?”

10. The Amazing Race – I Cannot Deal with Your Psycho Behavior (PW: 10)

CBS – Sunday @ 8pm

Okay. I figured it out. With the exception of Kent and Vyxsin, I wouldn’t be disappointed seeing any of these teams win. Even if Kent and Vyxsin won, I would be upset like I have been in previous seasons. Basically, there is no team left that I really hate. On the other end, I really like Zev and Justin and would love to see them win, but I actually like every other team. At least a little bit. So why am I watching if I don’t really care who wins?

“If we get eliminated today, I swear to God, I’m never going to speak to you again.”

11. The Borgias – Lucrezia’s Wedding (PW: 9)

Showtime – Sunday  @ 7pm

I think I’d rather watch another hour of Sam and Ronnie. The Borgias has failed to keep me entertained. This is it’s two week notice. If it doesn’t get better in the next two weeks, I’m out.

“All things are permissible in our dreams.”

By Joel

I’m impatient. I like to overreact. It’s the reason why I struggle with fantasy sports. I change my roster a hundred times each week. If someone has one big game, I’m ready to pick them up. I watched Willie Bloomquist suck for seven years in Seattle and was STILL tempted to pick him up after his hot start in Arizona this year. Naturally, I’m already trying to figure out who this year’s All-Stars will be. With the All-Star game only two months away, I’ve decided to name who I think should be starting. Today I’m kicking it off with the American League, because we all know it’s the better one.

If you need them, here are definitions for wOBA and WAR. Please note that WAR isn’t super useful at this point in the season, but I’m still going to use it for a comparison.

Catcher – Russell Martin, New York Yankees

.289 AVG, 4 HR, .413 wOBA, 0.6 WAR

I hate including Yankees but this Turtle from Entourage lookalike is making it pretty hard to ignore him. I laughed at the Yankees for signing him. I thought he was washed up. The Yankees had a great prospect in catcher Jesus Montero and it didn’t look like Martin would be necessary. Less than a month into the season and I’ve been proven wrong. Montero has regressed and Martin is enjoying looking even more like Turtle now that he wears a Yankees hat everyday.

Even though he